By Shimon Sherman, Jns
“If we can't prevent the sale, we might as well link it to normalization and get something out of it,” says analyst Yosef Kuperwasser.
U.S. President Donald Trump intends to move forward with an agreement to supply Saudi Arabia with advanced F-35 stealth warplanes.
“We’ll be selling,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One on Tuesday. “They wanna buy a lot of jets, I’m looking at that. They’ve asked me to look at it. They want to buy a lot of ’35s, but they want to buy actually more than that, fighter jets,” Trump added.
Despite Trump's assurances, the proposed sale, which includes 48 aircraft, is awaiting internal U.S. government clearance before advancing to a full interagency review.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Trump on Tuesday as part of a high-profile visit to the White House. The proposed F-35 sale is part of a broader negotiation in which Saudi Arabia is seeking a bilateral defense pact with the United States and access to American nuclear technology for a civilian energy program. Officials involved in planning the visit say Riyadh is aiming to advance the defense and nuclear tracks under a single comprehensive arrangement.
The arms negotiations come on the heels of the large defense packages already signed between Washington and Riyadh. In May, Trump authorized what he described as “the largest defense sales agreement in history,” a $142 billion framework providing Saudi Arabia with “state-of-the-art warfighting equipment and services from over a dozen U.S. defense firms.”
Qualitative Military Edge
The discussion over a potential weapons deal centers on the singular nature of the F-35 warplane. The F-35 is considered the most sophisticated U.S. combat jet, combining fifth-generation stealth, advanced sensing and integrated data-fusion capabilities. The jet’s low-observable profile is built on “radar-evading shaping” and composite materials designed to reduce detection.
The F-35’s propulsion system further incorporates classified thermal-management methods essential to its stealth profile and high-energy onboard systems. The wide array of singular tech innovations leads to a broad range of mission profiles, allowing it to serve simultaneously as a strike, reconnaissance and nuclear platform.
With more than 1,000 aircraft delivered to allied forces worldwide, the F-35 has become the central pillar of U.S. and partner airpower. Its general dominance across several important metrics of aerial power is the primary reason Washington treats any sale as a major strategic decision requiring careful review.
The strategic weight attached to any potential F-35 transfer becomes more significant considering the American commitment to maintain Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME), the principle that Israel must retain superior military capabilities over any neighboring state. The concept took shape in the years after the Yom Kippur War, as Washington deepened its military relationships across the Middle East. U.S. policymakers sought a framework that would allow Arab partners to acquire American equipment while ensuring that Israel could defend itself.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yosef Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, expanded on the critical nature of the QME military paradigm. “Israel has no chance of having a higher quantity of weapons than its opponents, so the way of overcoming the shortcoming is to ensure that we have the quality on our side,” he told JNS.
What began as an executive-branch norm eventually evolved into statutory policy. Successive administrations affirmed that the U.S. must guarantee Israel’s ability to maintain a decisive QME, and Congress later required formal certification that any major arms sale in the region would not undermine that standard.
The commitment has shaped several contentious decisions, none more illustrative than the 1981 proposal to sell AWACS early-warning aircraft to Saudi Arabia. Israel argued the platform would narrow its advantage and opposed the sale intensely. The Reagan administration countered that strengthening regional air-surveillance capabilities served U.S. interests more broadly. After a protracted debate, Congress approved the transfer, demonstrating how Washington has historically balanced its QME commitments with wider strategic considerations.
Since then, the policy has guided not only which systems Washington provides to regional partners, but also the timing, configuration and operational restrictions placed on those transfers. The current F-35 discussions fall squarely within that tradition—its strategic importance and the capabilities it provides make any prospective sale one of the most consequential tests of this policy in decades.
The Israeli Air Force
Israel’s view of the debate is shaped by the role the F-35 already plays in the Israeli Air Force. As the only operator of the aircraft in the region, Israel fields a customized variant—the F-35I "Adir"—that incorporates domestic upgrades in electronic-warfare systems, mission software and precision-guided munitions.
Israeli officials describe the platform as a “multi-role combat aircraft capable of both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions while collecting and distributing intelligence during the same sortie,” a capability set that has become central to Israel’s military doctrine. The IAF has built dedicated infrastructure, including training, data-analysis units and mission-planning centers, to support what defense officials have called the “backbone” of Israel’s airpower.
“The F-35 is what gives Israel its qualitative military edge. This was demonstrated many times in the last two years, and the peak of this was the operation in Iran this year,” Kuperwasser noted, referring to June's "Operation Rising Lion."
The F-35’s exclusivity as well as its central position in Israel’s airpower is one reason Israeli strategists view any regional proliferation of the platforms as a significant shift. While Israel has historically adapted to capabilities acquired by neighboring states, the F-35 occupies a different category. The F-35 is embedded in Israel’s broader concept of deterrence and operational freedom of action. On Sunday, the IDF submitted a formal policy paper to the government opposing the sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia, saying “Israel’s air superiority could be eroded if other countries in the Middle East possess” the fighter jet.
Kuperwasser explained that even if the sale does go through, Israel will still have a tactical advantage over the Saudis. “Giving Saudi Arabia F-35s will erode the qualitative edge, but it won't close the gap,” he observed. “It's not only about a specific weapon system. It's how you use it. We have command and control elements and electronic warfare systems that the Saudis won't get. Some of them were developed by Israel,” Kuperwasser said. “Also, they will be flown by Saudi pilots and not by Israeli pilots,” he added.
Despite the IDF’s opposition, officials in the political echelon have signaled that their response to a potential Saudi F-35 deal depends on what strings will be attached. According to the Axios news website, an Israeli official said Jerusalem is not opposed in principle to the kingdom acquiring the aircraft, but that “the supply of F-35s to Saudi Arabia needs to be subject to Saudi normalization with Israel.”
Kuperwasser warned that conditioning the sale on normalization was a pragmatic but dangerous strategy. “There's definitely a concern because even if the sale is linked to normalization, we don't know how the regime will look in 10 or 15 years. Normalization can be taken back, but the F-35s will be permanent,” he said. “That being said, if we can't prevent the sale, we might as well link it to normalization and get something out of it.”
Israeli media have also reported that Jerusalem raised questions with Washington about the terms of any deployment and operation of the jets. Officials argued that approving the transfer without clear understandings on these points would undermine U.S. guarantees on Israel’s QME.
Israel’s conditional position feeds directly into the questions under review in Washington. Trump said on Tuesday that the planes Saudi Arabia will get will be “pretty much the same” as the platforms supplied for Israel. “I know [Israel would] like you to get planes of reduced caliber. I don’t think that makes you too happy,” Trump told Prince Mohammed. “As far as I’m concerned, I think they are both at a level where they should get top of the line.”
However, officials cited by Axios described internal discussions in the Pentagon over what “protections and restrictions” would be required if Washington were to move forward. The constraints on the transfer of F-35s to Saudi Arabia rest not only on concerns over Israel's QME, but also on the potential transfer of classified technology to China, which has deep ties with Saudi Arabia.
According to those accounts, the administration is examining mechanisms that have been used in past sensitive sales. These include narrowing specific mission-system functions, providing a more limited software and data package configuration, and setting parameters for how the aircraft can be employed.
Regional shift in military power
Israel’s caution over the prospective Saudi acquisition of the F-35 also reflects a broader trend reshaping the Middle East—multiple regional militaries are modernizing rapidly, acquiring advanced aircraft, air-defense systems and long-range strike capabilities on a scale not seen in recent years.
The United Arab Emirates has pursued one of the most ambitious modernization strategies. The country’s earlier proposal to acquire the F-35 moved forward following the Abraham Accords, before stalling over U.S. security restrictions. Beyond the F-35 track, the UAE has expanded its fleet with upgraded F-16E/F aircraft and is negotiating for additional Eurofighter Typhoons. The country has also invested heavily in long-range precision-strike systems and advanced munitions. Abu Dhabi is simultaneously pushing to build a self-sufficient defense industry and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers over the next decade.
Saudi Arabia’s plans also extend beyond the F-35 request. Riyadh has invested heavily in upgrading and expanding its fleet of F-15 and Eurofighter Typhoon warplanes and is seeking new air-defense and missile-defense capabilities, while expanding local defense production.
Kuperwasser explained that despite the erosion of Israel's QME, there was a silver lining to some of these developments. When countries that are on the Abraham Accords track get stronger, it’s not necessarily for the worst. "It will make them more stable and strengthen their relationship with the U.S. There are advantages in this for Israel,” he said.
Turkey has also invested heavily in refurbishing its airpower. Once a participant in the F-35 program, Ankara was removed after it acquired the Russian S-400 mobile long-range surface-to-air/anti-ballistic missile system. Since then, Turkey has expanded its domestic development of the KAAN fighter and pursued alternative procurement channels. In late October, Turkey finalized its deal to purchase 20 Typhoons, which Ankara framed as essential to sustaining its air-combat capacity. Meanwhile, Turkey is one of the region’s most active developers of advanced airpower.
“Israel should definitely be worried about the Turkey-Qatar jihadist axis. We don't want them to get too strong. Any conversation about Turkey getting the F-35 should worry us much more,” Kuperwasser said. “If they got these platforms into Turkey or into Syria, that would be very threatening and concerning.”
