By Jonathan Ruhe & Yoni Tobin, JNS
The United States can gain much-needed freedom of action, strategically and militarily, by cooperating more closely with Israel.
The United States is returning to negotiations with Iran for the worst possible reason. Talking has become U.S. President Donald Trump’s Plan B, now that he realizes American forces are not “locked and loaded” with credible options to damage Iran’s regime and blunt its retaliation.
But diplomacy offers no way out. It will not prevent Iranian protesters from returning to the streets sooner or later, demanding freedom from a regime that will not and cannot address their deep-rooted grievances. And the limits of U.S. force posture in the Middle East only embolden Tehran to stonewall American negotiators, continue threatening U.S. targets and flout Trump’s redline by cracking down mercilessly on inevitable future unrest.
Surging a U.S. Navy carrier strike group, Air Force combat aircraft and Army air defenses into the region was supposed to resolve Trump’s dilemma. Upon arriving in regional waters, however, the USS Abraham Lincoln stopped some 500 miles off Iran at the outer operating edge for its dozens of F-35C, F/A-18 and EA-18G strike and electronic warfare aircraft.
Iran’s short-range anti-ship missile arsenals make it too risky to move much closer with a multibillion-dollar ship carrying enough combat power to match a mid-size NATO member’s entire air force. Even this far out, the Lincoln already had to shoot down an approaching Iranian drone, and Iranian naval forces threatened a U.S.-flagged ship inside the Gulf.
The deployment of F-15E aircraft to Jordan can help deter or deflect any Iranian drone and cruise missile strikes on Israel. But all of America’s Arab partners that host U.S. forces explicitly prohibit their bases and airspaces from being used against Iran or its proxies.
Moreover, those bases are highly vulnerable to Iran’s short-range projectiles. Unlike its longer-range missiles targeting Israel, with their time-consuming launch preparations, Iran can conduct bolt-from-the-blue, mass precision strikes on key U.S. bases in the Gulf using swarms of attack drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles.
Strikes in recent years on Saudi oil sites, in addition to U.S. forces in Iraq and Qatar, hint at the damage Iran could inflict by fulfilling its threats to set the region ablaze. Notably, U.S. forces recently evacuated Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base for the second time in just eight months.
The flow of Patriot and THAAD air defenses to the Gulf will mitigate, though not eliminate, this tactical risk. And no amount of protection addresses the bigger issue: America’s existing force posture cannot counter the Middle East’s biggest shared threats from Iran.
This problem was evident in last summer’s “Operation Midnight Hammer.” A lack of secure bases and access rights in the region compelled the U.S. military to plan a complex and demanding mission that sent B-2 nuclear-capable bombers on a 37-hour round-trip from Missouri, supported by 100 additional aircraft.
Fortunately, the United States can gain much-needed freedom of action against Iran by cooperating more closely with Israel. Specifically, America should explore basing options for U.S. forces at Israeli airbases.
Israel makes clear that it would impose zero access or overflight restrictions. It understands better than anyone how a strong U.S. force posture serves shared interests. And unlike the Gulf, it sits beyond the ranges of Tehran’s short-range missiles and drones, yet is still close enough to conduct offensive operations against the regime’s entire threat network.
Israeli airbases are primed to support America’s operational needs as well. As one of the authors saw firsthand, Ovda Airbase in the Negev is built to U.S. specifications. This includes shelters, ramps, and fuel and ammo depots for all types of U.S. combat aircraft, plus transports and refuelers. These bases maintain high readiness standards and are well-protected by battle-tested air and missile defenses.
Tehran believes that it prevented Trump from throwing the first punch. Working with a partner as capable as Israel can show that America is better prepared to land a knockout blow.
