JNS
Despite the plan adhering to most of Netanyahu’s red lines, Israelis to his right, including members of his coalition, may be upset with its terms.
In what may or may not prove to be a historic announcement on Monday at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear that they are ready for the two-year war in Gaza to end immediately, and to usher in an era of regional cooperation and normalization.
The deal calls for the immediate return of all Israeli hostages—living and dead—within 72 hours; the complete demilitarization of Hamas; and the formation of a “Board of Peace” to ensure demilitarization, as well as recruitment and training of a new local Palestinian government to administer and police the war-torn Gaza Strip. Neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority will be part of the Strip’s governance.
Hamas’s “tyranny of terror has to end,” Trump said in a lengthy joint press conference with Netanyahu. In return, Israel will end the combat phase of the war and begin with an immediate “modest” withdrawal of the Israeli military. Israel will release Palestinian security prisoners along with those detained during the war in Gaza, as well as the bodies of slain Gazans being held by Israel.
Following demonstrable proof of demilitarization, Israel will continue with phased troop withdrawals, eventually from nearly all of Gaza, with the exception of a broad security perimeter that Israel will maintain around the Strip.
Even with the troop withdrawals, Netanyahu claimed that “Israel will maintain overriding security responsibility in Gaza.” Yet, Israel has agreed at this stage to permit a coalition of nations led by the United States to see through the stages of Hamas’s demilitarization.
Should the plan move ahead, a new local apolitical Palestinian governing mechanism will be created in Gaza, and will facilitate the delivery of massive amounts of humanitarian aid and the ultimate rebuilding of Gaza for local Palestinians.
While the plan calls for allowing Palestinians to leave Gaza if they choose to do so, residents of the Strip will be encouraged to stay and build toward what the plan refers to as the “New Gaza,” which Israel will “neither occupy nor annex.” There is no mention of whether Israel will apply its sovereignty to or annex territories in Judea and Samaria, although Trump said on Friday that he wouldn’t allow it.
The plan includes guarantees that if the U.S.-led board—a key member to be former British Prime Minister Tony Blair—fails to achieve the desired demilitarization, then Israel will be permitted to finish the job by itself.
“There is an easy way and a hard way,” Netanyahu stated during the press conference. “We prefer the easy way.”
According to Trump, key nations across the Middle East and the greater Muslim world were all ready to be party to the agreement.
“Arab and Muslim countries have committed to demilitarize Gaza quickly,” Trump said. “To diminish the military capabilities of Hamas.”
Those countries include Qatar, which has effectively been representing Hamas in negotiations, along with Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Indonesia.
It remains to be seen whether Hamas will accept the deal in principle, let alone commit to its terms—though Trump said that “I’m hearing that Hamas wants to get this done, too.”
The next 72 hours will determine whether Hamas accepts the plan by releasing the hostages.
A call between Trump, Netanyahu and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani may have been key to pushing Qatar to force Hamas’s hand and finally surrender control of Gaza. During the conversation, Netanyahu apologized for killing a Qatari citizen while recently targeting Hamas leaders who have long been provided safe haven in Doha.
Netanyahu assured him that the attack was directed at terrorists, not sovereign Qatar, and that Israel would cease from further strikes in the Gulf state.
“It was a heart-to-heart call,” Trump said, adding that the leaders “agreed to launch a formal trilateral mechanism to address regional security and grievances between the parties.”
America has repeatedly referred to Qatar as an ally, while Israel ultimately views it as an enemy. “I’m going to be Al Thani’s PR man,” Trump said. “Because a lot of people see him differently.”
Yet Netanyahu conceded that open communication may ultimately provide a pathway toward reconciliation. “I am glad we will form, under President Trump’s suggestion, a trilateral commission to mitigate grievances. There are quite a few,” he stated.
Israel’s strikes targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar earlier in September may have created the conditions that led to the breakthrough in talks.
‘What the future holds, no one really knows’
A key component for Israel is a U.S. rejection of immediate Palestinian statehood, in the face of European and international calls for a pathway toward the creation of a Palestinian state.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu was very clear about his opposition to a Palestinian State,” Trump said. “I understand and respect his position on many things.”
But the plan does permit the P.A. to have a pathway toward control of Gaza, as well as possible statehood in the West Bank—known in Israel as Judea and Samaria—provided it goes through a process of reforms that include ceasing “pay for slay” financing payments to terrorists; ending of incitement in schoolbooks and public forums; ceasing lawfare against Israel, including cases filed against it at the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, both in The Hague; and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state.
“I challenge Palestinians to take responsibility for their destiny. They have had a rough life with Hamas,” Trump stated, adding that he recognizes the possibility that the P.A. may not “complete the reform.”
Though these reforms were initially presented to the P.A. as part of a Trump-proposed peace plan in 2020, none have been implemented to date. The plan, then called the “Deal of the Century,” demonstrates that Middle East proposals from the White House often do not bear fruit, even when Israel agrees in principle to their implementation.
“What the future holds for Palestinians, no one really knows,” Trump acknowledged.
Despite the current plan's adherence to most of Netanyahu’s red lines for any deal to end the conflict, Israelis to his right, including members of his coalition, may be upset with its terms. They are unlikely to be satisfied with an Israeli withdrawal, the release of convicted terrorists back into society, as well as a massive influx of humanitarian and monetary aid being pumped in to build a “New Gaza.”
Many believed that only Israel could secure control of the Strip. Others had thought that large numbers of Gazans would leave as refugees of war. Such a scenario is still possible.
The process of clearing out and rebuilding Gaza will take years; as such, many Gazans may well believe it is in their best interest to start new lives elsewhere, rather than see if and how peaceful and successful rebuilding takes place.
Plus, nations around the world may now become more willing to take in Gaza refugees, with an end to the conflict and new guarantees from Israel that it does not seek to occupy or annex the territory.
Furthermore, with every day the war continued, Israel was losing any remaining support of the international community. With this new announcement, world leaders see that Jerusalem is ready to make compromises for peace and halt its offensive. Yet, if Hamas refuses the deal outright and does not return the hostages within 72 hours, Israel has full license to continue the fighting.
Trump’s guarantee to prevent the immediate creation of a Palestinian state may also calm some opponents of the deal.
At this point, Israel seeks to get all of its hostages back immediately, send its military reservists home and begin to restore its diplomatic image once Hamas no longer governs Gaza. If the deal succeeds in those key objectives, Netanyahu will present it as a major victory for Israel.
Of course, as with all such deals, it remains to be seen whether this one can actually be implemented. If not, Israel and Hamas may find that the announcement was, at best, aspirational. If it succeeds, Netanyahu and Trump believe that it could quickly pave the pathway to an expansion of the Abraham Accords.
